Ukraine says it has intercepted a Russian operational plan for a devastating winter campaign against the country's energy system, and Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal presented the document to European partners in Paris about two weeks before October 2, The New York Times reported. The Times of London, which published details of the reporting on October 3, says the document — dated August 2026 and written in Russian, according to accounts — describes up to 1,000 missiles, drones and bombs aimed at collapsing Ukraine's power grid, including strikes on the electrical switchyards that connect the country's three operating nuclear plants to the grid.

What does the document describe?

According to the accounts published by The New York Times and The Times, the plan lays out a methodical strike campaign against a wide range of energy infrastructure, with Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa listed as the top target cities. The most alarming element, in The Times' reporting, is the intention to force Ukraine's three operating nuclear plants — the backbone of its power system — to shut down by firing missiles at the electrical switchyards that connect them to the grid. Those switchyards sit less than a mile from the reactors, so destroying them could take the plants offline without striking the reactor sites directly.

The document also describes attacks on Ukraine's water infrastructure, including pumping stations and wastewater treatment facilities, using dozens of ballistic missiles and glide bombs. The overall goal stated in the plan is to eliminate nearly 15 gigawatts of generating capacity — roughly equivalent to Ukraine's current total, per The Times — though Shmyhal has said there are plans to raise capacity to almost 20 gigawatts by the end of October.

What is the situation in Kyiv now?

Kyiv is already absorbing what officials describe as the opening salvo of the campaign. On September 29–30, Russia launched its largest-scale strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since last winter, and the bombardment has continued since — including jet-powered drones striking the capital in daylight. Kyiv's mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said on Friday that the city was in "a critical situation" after the Southern Bridge over the Dnipro was closed in response to a Russian drone strike on its support structures. On Saturday, a second major crossing, the Northern Bridge, was also hit — Klitschko said the road surface and trolleybus wires were damaged and traffic from the left bank to the right bank was blocked.

"We can no longer pretend that life can go on as it did in peacetime," Klitschko wrote on Telegram. "The enemy is tearing Kyiv apart — destroying infrastructure, critical infrastructure, logistics networks, housing and social facilities. The aggressor has once again set out to destroy our energy system."

Ukraine is also increasingly exposed by a shortage of Western-supplied Patriot interceptor missiles since the United States and Israel went to war with Iran in February. President Volodymyr Zelensky has pleaded with Washington and Ukraine's European partners to increase supplies. Former US vice-president Mike Pence said in August that Zelensky had told him that if the US could spare 5 per cent of its inventory of Patriots, "he believes that would get them through the winter months." Meanwhile, Russia has augmented its barrage with repurposed RM48U missiles and jet-powered Geran-5 drones that fly 150 km/h faster than earlier models; Kyiv said Russia launched more than 2,800 jet-powered drones against Ukraine in August, up from 1,500 in July and 350 in June.

What can be confirmed — and what cannot?

The existence and authenticity of the intercepted plan rest on Kyiv's presentation: Shmyhal described the document to European partners as an intercepted Russian strategy, and The New York Times obtained a copy, which it reported it could not independently authenticate. Neither outlet claims to have verified the document as a genuine Russian operational plan. The details above are what the document is reported to contain — not confirmed Russian intentions — and Russia has not publicly responded to the disclosure.

The plan's contours are consistent with observable Russian behavior: the pre-winter timing, the focus on generation and transmission nodes, and the scale of the September 29–30 opening strikes. The Institute for the Study of War assessed on September 30 that the strikes mark the beginning of a winter-long campaign to degrade Ukraine's energy security. Whether Moscow is following this specific blueprint, and whether its air defenses can be replenished in time, will be tested in the substations and missile trajectories of the coming months.

Related: our [October 1 report on the opening of Russia's winter energy campaign](/articles/2026-10-01-russia-winter-strike-campaign-begins).