Fighting has returned to Ethiopia's Tigray region. In September 2026, a seven-group armed alliance headed by Tigrayan forces launched an offensive against the Ethiopian military, shattering a fragile peace that had held since 2022. On October 4, Ethiopian government forces retook Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital — and the conflict is pulling in neighbors across the Horn of Africa, with Ethiopia severing diplomatic ties with Eritrea and four regional leaders issuing a joint declaration against Addis Ababa's policies.
What was the Pretoria agreement?
The African Union-facilitated agreement, signed in Pretoria in November 2022, ended two years of devastating fighting between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The 2020–22 war killed hundreds of thousands of people, according to estimates, displaced millions, and caused extensive damage to infrastructure and livelihoods.
But the deal was incomplete. Key issues — the status of disputed territories, the return of displaced people and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces — remained unresolved. In July 2026, the TPLF said the Pretoria agreement had effectively collapsed, accusing the federal government of failing to implement key provisions. The federal government rejected that characterization, saying it remained committed to the peace process while accusing the TPLF of undermining the agreement. The political dispute was accompanied by growing military tensions, including sporadic clashes and drone strikes in parts of Tigray.
What happened in September and October 2026?
On September 23, the opposition alliance — a coalition of seven armed and political groups that announced its formation days earlier with the declared aim of challenging Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government — launched a big offensive against the Ethiopian military. Tigrayan forces seized three airports, including Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum. Fighting spread into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions.
The federal counterattack came fast. Late on October 2, the pro-government Tigray Peace Forces militia said its fighters had taken full control of Mekelle airport and were "clearing the city." On October 3, explosions were heard in Addis Ababa, including near the headquarters of Ethiopia's military — a source linked to the opposition alliance claimed drone strikes, though the claim could not be independently verified.
On October 4, the TPLF confirmed it had withdrawn from Mekelle, saying its regional administration would temporarily operate from another location — a move it portrayed as tactical, intended to prevent further destruction. A source close to the Tigray Peace Forces said its fighters entered the center of the city on Saturday afternoon, followed by the Ethiopian military; a humanitarian source and a Mekelle resident confirmed to Reuters that government forces were in control. The prime minister's office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
On October 4, former Tigray Interim Administration president Abraham Belay told Ethiopian state media that preparations were underway to establish a new interim administration in Tigray, organized from the kebele (neighborhood) level upward with community participation, with the aim of holding regional elections within months.
Why did Ethiopia cut ties with Eritrea?
The fighting has ruptured Ethiopia's relations with its neighbors. On October 1, Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, saying they had been involved in activities threatening Ethiopia's national security. Eritrea subsequently severed diplomatic relations.
The reversal is striking: in the 2020–2022 war, Eritrean forces supported Abiy Ahmed's government. This time, Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of backing the rebel alliance, alongside Sudan and Egypt. All three countries deny the charge. Eritrea's Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel said on October 4 that Addis Ababa was trying to create a pretext for attacking Eritrea. Diplomats and analysts told Reuters that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is, for now, providing rebels with access to the coast — a sharp contrast with the last war, when Tigrayan forces were cut off on all sides.
Why do analysts fear a regional war?
On the surface, the clashes look like a revival of the 2020–2022 civil war. But this time, the Horn of Africa region is far more unstable, Reuters reported. The tangled web of alliances stretches from Chad to the Middle East:
- The UAE, a major backer of the Ethiopian government, has supported Sudan's RSF, according to United Nations experts — a claim the UAE denies. Ethiopia has also been accused of backing the RSF, including hosting a secret training camp, which Addis Ababa denies.
- Sudan's military has had backing from Egypt and Eritrea, while maintaining close ties with Saudi Arabia. Several diplomats told Reuters some Tigrayan forces have fought alongside Sudan's army, and that Khartoum hosted meetings that led to the creation of the Ethiopian rebel alliance.
- The feud between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which escalated in Yemen last year, has spilled over into the Horn of Africa. The UAE has struck deals with Somaliland and Puntland; Israel, also an ally of Ethiopia, is the only country to have recognized Somaliland and is training local forces there. Saudi Arabia is broadly aligned with Sudan's military, Egypt and Eritrea — all rivals of Ethiopia.
- At the heart of the shifting alliances: Ethiopia's long-standing quest to restore direct access to the sea, lost when Eritrea gained independence in 1993, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Egypt and Sudan say could threaten their water access.
What did the Alamein declaration say?
On October 4, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi hosted the leaders of Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan at the Alamein Consultative Summit in New Alamein. The four countries — Isaias Afwerki, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Sudan's Abdel Fattah al-Burhan alongside el-Sisi — issued a joint declaration on Sunday.
According to reporting on the declaration by Al Jazeera and Kulu Media, its key positions were:
- The Nile: the four countries affirmed principles of international law governing transboundary rivers, including the non-harm principle, prior notification, consultation and agreement with downstream countries — and rejected unilateral measures that harm the existing water uses of the two downstream states. The text does not name Ethiopia or the GERD, but the language lands squarely on the long-running Nile dispute.
- The Red Sea: governance and security of the waterway belong to the states bordering it, with an emphasis on maintaining security and stability and protecting freedom and safety of international navigation through the Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb — a pointed position as landlocked Ethiopia pursues sea access.
- Somalia: reaffirmed support for Somalia's sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity, and rejected recognition of or support for Somaliland.
- Sudan: affirmed support for Sudan's unity, sovereignty, territorial integrity and national institutions; rejected attempts to establish parallel entities or support mercenaries; and backed a Sudanese-led political process.
The declaration pushes back against several policies pursued by Ethiopia in recent years, and the leaders agreed to a follow-up mechanism and periodic summits — potentially turning the gathering into an ongoing four-country coordination framework aimed at Addis Ababa.
The next phase remains uncertain. The federal government says it is restoring its authority and building a new regional administration; the TPLF says its forces will keep fighting from elsewhere. And with Eritrea and Ethiopia now on opposing sides and a new four-country bloc aligned against Addis Ababa, the war that many treated as settled has returned — this time, as Reuters warned, with the potential to spread far beyond Ethiopia's frontiers.
